Despite significant declines in incidence of leporosy in Pakistan, ongoing transmission persists in some regions. In collaboration with three members the Department of Global Health at the Institute for Public Health (IPP) – Sophie Unterkircher (corresponding author), Anil Fastenau, and Matthew Willis – the study “Pakistan on the Road to Zero Leprosy: an analysis of routine data for the period 1980–2022” was recently published in The Lancet Global Health.

This retrospective cohort study analyzes data from the Pakistani National Leprosy Control Programme spanning more than four decades. During this period, the incidence of leprosy dropped from 23.5 to 1.1 cases per million population, with a similarly significant decrease inprevalence. However, persistent clusters of transmission remain in certain districts, particularly in the provinces of Sindh and Punjab. A consistently high propertion of pediatric cases and an steady share of patients presenting with grade 2 disabilities (on average 20.7%) indicate ongoing transmission. Moreover, the study?s use oft the WHO?s Leprosy Eliminiation Monitoring Tool (LEMT) and SaTScan identified largely overlapping high-incidence areas, underscoring the need of presisely targeted, context-specific interventions. 

The authors emphasize that continuous data collection remains essential even after official elimination thresholds have been reached. In Pakistan, the longstanding role of the Marie Adelaide Leprosy Centre (MALC) demonstrates the importance of strong public-private partnerships in disease control. Key recommandations include expanding digital health data infrastructure and developing adaptive intervention strategies. 

Contact:

Sophie Unterkirchner

University of Bremen, Institute of Public Health and Nursing Research, Department of Global Health

E-Mail: sophie13@uni-bremen.de