The closing conference of the German Federal Ministry of Research, Technology and Space's (BMFTR) funding initiative ‘Tipping Points, Dynamics and Interactions of Social and Ecological Systems’ (GlobalTip) was well attended, with 85 participants from research and practitioner backgrounds. Sara Doolittle Llanos, María Garteizgogeascoa and Michael Flitner participated on behalf of the Humboldt Tipping sub-project, which has been ongoing at artec since 2019, and presented the working group’s perspectives on the concepts of resilience, closely related to tipping point science, from a critical social science approach.

What are tipping points?

The six sub-projects of the funding initiative investigated elements of the Earth system at risk of reaching a tipping point in terrestrial and aquatic regions worldwide. When the stability limits of elements such as the Amazon rainforest, the Greenland ice sheet and ocean currents are exceeded, abrupt, severe and potentially irreversible changes can occur. Human interventions such as the overfishing of the oceans and large-scale deforestation for agricultural purposes come into play with naturally occurring phenomena such as El Ni?o. Climate change exacerbates these negative developments, placing additional strain on ecosystems through increasingly frequent and prolonged periods of drought, for example. Once a tipping point has been exceeded, this can lead to cascading effects for society, the economy and nature.

The sub-projects developed adaptation strategies to counteract the negative effects of human economic activity on ecosystems, working closely with the local communities that depend on these ecosystems for their livelihood.

Humboldt Tipping – The GlobalTip sub-project at artec

The sub-project ‘Humboldt Tipping – Social Ecological Tipping Points of the Northern Humboldt Current Upwelling System, Economic Repercussions and Governance Strategies’ is researching the upwelling system of the Humboldt Current off the west coast of Peru. This is the most fish-rich place in the world due to the natural process of 'upwelling', whereby cold, nutrient-rich water rises from the depths to the sea surface. However, the project's latest research indicates that Peru's coastal waters will undergo significant climatic and ecological changes by 2050. These changes will threaten the marine ecosystem and pose significant risks to the adaptability of both small-scale and industrial fisheries.

The coast of Peru is also known for providing livelihoods and sources of protein to thousands of people regionally, and also as a source of extraction for products that make their way into international markets, such as fish oil, fishmeal, and to a lesser degree, scallops. The working package ‘Stakeholder engagement and governance for sustainability transformations’, to which the artec belongs, is tasked with researching what governance transformations are needed in the face of current and future crisis in the sector. Through ethnographic fieldwork, the group delves into how small-scale fishers, scallop producers, and other fundamental members of the communities such as women are interwoven into local and international dynamics and the shifts that occur. The approach is participatory, directly involving stakeholders to grasp the importance of local knowledge and agency in the transformative process.

Tipping point research requires a comprehensive view of the phenomenon

In addition to the project results, a key focus was the exchange between the participating researchers from Germany and the partner countries, as well as stakeholders from the study regions. Participants in the discussions agreed that in order to research tipping points, it is necessary to consider the economy, society and ecosystems together. Focusing on individual drivers alone means underestimating the danger of possible future tipping points.

Further information on the Humboldt Tipping project at artec can be found here. You can find out more about the BMFTR's GlobalTip initiative here.